We’re only a couple of weeks away from the start of the US Masters so what better time than now to share a golf betting strategy I’ve been using on Betfair profitably this season.
It’s not a golf system as such but I’m confident anyone who’s willing to do a bit of research can use it and make money from it.
You will need:
- An account with Betfair (click here to open now with £20 free bet included)
- A brain
- To understand the difference between backing and laying (read this article for help)
The golf trading strategy I’m going to teach you in this post relies on backing players before the tournament starts and then laying them during the tournament to guarantee a profit (green up) before the tournament is finished.
The beauty of the system is that it doesn’t matter if your player ends up winning or not, you’ll still make a profit.
How It Works
This strategy relies on your ability to identify players who are suited to the conditions of the event you’re planning to trade.
Before the start of play you must identify players who will perform well and at some point during the tournament their in-play odds will be shorter than their starting price. Things to look out for in players include:
Form is generally the first place I look to determine players who could potentially perform well in upcoming tournaments. It’s slightly less relevant for the big guns like Rory and Tiger but it’s paramount to lesser tour players and can be a useful aid to identify up and coming talent at longer odds (where you’ll make your biggest profit if correctly identified).
Here you are looking for top 10’s and trying to identify players who have their game in good shape.
Player Strength & Weakness vs The Course
If I’ve managed to identify any stand out selections from the form guide I’ll then move on to analyse the course vs that player’s strengths and weaknesses. You can find all player stats required for this here for the PGA Tour or here for the European Tour.
Things to look out for here include; how long the course is vs how long the player is and how their driving accuracy is shaping up, how tight the greens are vs the player’s green in regulation stats, severity of bunkers vs sand saves… you get the idea. Basically we’re looking to determine how the player matches up vs the course.
It’s not a bad idea to read some event previews to check up on course info and get inspiration for players to check out here.
Speaking of how the player matches up vs the course historical performance is also another great indicator for us to use. Players on good form coming into an event held on a course they’ve performed well on in the past is a real positive.
Similarly if a certain player is on good form but has had a nightmare on a particular track historically then that’s a real reason not to select them for this golf betting strategy.
Once You’ve Selected Your Player/s
Now you’ve identified a player or players who you feel will perform well this week you need to head over to Betfair and back them at the best possible price you can get.
The idea is then to find a point during the tournament where their odds have decreased so you can place a lay bet and guarantee a profit regardless of the result.
Let me give you an example to make it a bit clearer:
Golf Trading Example:
So the Valero Texas Open is the penultimate event before the US Masters this season and I’ve selected Brandon Steele from the field as a potential strong performer.
He won the event in 2011 and finished 4th here the year after. He’s quoted as saying TPC San Antonio is one of his favourite tracks and he has a couple of top ten finishes so far this season so I know his game is in good shape. He’s also a good driver of the ball and this course is long and narrow.
I’ve backed him for £50 at 32.0 on Betfair (31/1) and should he win I stand to return £1,550.
The tournament begins and Steele has a good opening round putting him in the top ten and in contention. He’s not a particularly big name so his price hasn’t moved a miles but he’s in to 18.0 (21/1) so now’s my chance to lock in a profit.
I head over to my handy hedging calculator and plug in the following; back price = 32, lay price = 18, lay commission 5% and hit recalculate.
It’s telling me that if I now lay Steele for £89.14 I’ll be guaranteed a profit, regardless of who wins the tournament, of £34.68.
Here are some notes I feel it’s important to share:
- In general you’re not looking to limit your losses on losing trades. If players perform badly their odds will drift to the point where it’s just not worth it – you’re better off hoping they have a stormer and get back into contention.
- It’s quite important to have multiple selections on each tournament, you usually only need one to do well to make a profit and wipe out your losing trades on other players.
- In my example above I laid off very quickly, the longer you wait the bigger profit you will make and in most cases it’s worth waiting till at least round 3 before getting out, this will maximise potential winnings but you will lose some smaller profitable trades when players fall away or blow up after a good start.
- Backing longer odds players for smaller stakes and bigger favourites for larger stakes is certainly an option.
Here are some variations which can be used:
- In the above example I could lay for £50 to cover any potential losses and let the rest of the trade ride for longer. I’d be covering any potential loss and trying to maximise winnings on the rest of the trade.
If you have any questions then submit them via the email address on my about page – I’ve tried opening comments but just get far too much spam.